Position 2026-10-25: short (-0.20, confidence 0.54)

Our view for the coming session is a modest bearish lean on Bitcoin, held with moderate conviction. BTC closed near $80,780 after a weekend dip that briefly took it to about $79,140. It is down roughly 0.7% on the week and 4.3% on the month, and it sits about 36% below its all-time high near $126,200. Every area of public data we track leans the same way. None of them leans hard, though, so this is a tilt rather than a large bet. The heaviest weight goes to the macro backdrop, which has turned more defensive. US high-yield credit spreads have widened to about 3.40%, up roughly 27% in a month. The VIX is near 19.5, about 28% higher than a month ago, and the MOVE bond-volatility index is up about 8%. Oil-linked funds have gained nearly 14% in a month, the Nasdaq is down about 3.6%, and the dollar fund has firmed. Bitcoin has recently traded like a high-beta tech asset: its 20-day co-movement with the Nasdaq is statistically meaningful. Hot headline inflation, rising inflation breakevens, a geopolitical-risk gauge well above its recent norm, and reports of US evacuations in the Middle East all make it harder for risk assets to rally into this week's FOMC meeting. The crypto-specific data fits that picture. Spot ETF flows turned sharply negative in the last two reported sessions, at about -$636M and then -$138M, wiping out most of the prior week's inflows. The Coinbase premium has stayed negative and deepened, and USDC supply has shrunk by about $3B over 30 days. On-chain, the share of supply held by long-term holders slipped by about 0.75 percentage points in a month, and coin-days destroyed are running about 40% above the prior month. Older coins are moving, and roughly 38% of supply now sits below its cost basis, which leaves sellers waiting overhead on any rally. Positioning is the other concern. Open interest measured in BTC has risen about 4% over the past week while price drifted lower. Perpetual funding on Binance and Bybit has climbed to two or three times its 30-day average. Long liquidations have dominated for three straight days, about $89.5M of longs against $12.4M of shorts in the latest 24 hours, mostly in the $79k-$80k band. At the same time, options traders are paying up for downside puts. When leverage keeps building on the long side into a falling market, there is fuel for another flush if $79k-$80k gives way. We keep the lean modest for good reasons. About 62% of supply is still in profit, MVRV near 1.5 is far from stressed, and hashrate is rising strongly. Prediction markets put the median Friday close near $81k, roughly symmetric around spot. Heavy options open interest around $80k-$82k into Friday's large expiry could dampen moves or amplify them. A Fed hold is widely expected, about 92% on prediction markets, but the meeting can still surprise in either direction. We would turn neutral if BTC reclaimed $82k with funding cooling and ETF inflows resuming. A decisive break below $79k alongside wider credit spreads would strengthen the bearish case.