Position 2026-10-29: short (-0.20, confidence 0.52)

Our view for Oct 29 is a modest bearish lean on Bitcoin, with only moderate conviction. BTC closed Oct 28 near $81,270. That is down about 3.3% on the week and 2.6% on the month, and still roughly 36% below its all-time high near $126,200. Most of the public evidence points lower: on-chain holder behaviour, the macro backdrop and the shape of recent price action. Derivatives positioning, however, has already been cleared out, so we think a small short tilt is the right way to express the view, not an aggressive one. The heaviest weight sits on-chain. Long-term holders' share of supply has fallen by more than a percentage point over the past 30 days. Coin-days destroyed, which measures old coins being moved, averaged about 49% more over the last month than the month before. Together that looks like seasoned holders selling into a soft market. MVRV has slipped to around 1.49 and is down about 5% in a month, while the realized price (the aggregate on-chain cost basis, near $54,100) keeps edging higher, so holders' profit cushion is shrinking from both sides. Roughly 38% of supply now sits below its cost basis, and holders who are underwater tend to sell into any rally. Macro is the second leg. The Fed held this week, but headlines are openly discussing a December hike. Kalshi's December ladder puts about 80% on the 4.00-4.25% range, with little weight on lower outcomes, so there is no easing tailwind in sight. Energy is the pressure point. The USO oil fund is up about 11% in 30 days, September headline CPI ran at +0.65% m/m against +0.33% core, and TIPS breakevens have climbed to about 2.49%. The dollar fund UUP is up about 1.3% in a month and the Nasdaq is down about 1%. Over the past 60 sessions BTC has tended to move with the Nasdaq and against the dollar, so a firmer dollar and softer tech have lined up with BTC weakness. The next tests are today's GDP and personal income/PCE releases, the Nov 6 jobs report and the Nov 10 CPI print. Price and flows confirm the lean rather than lead it. Spot ETF flows turned negative in the Oct 22 sell-off: about $636M flowed out that day and another $138M the next. Inflows on Oct 26 and Oct 27 (about $110M and $176M) brought no price follow-through. Across the four complete sessions since Oct 22, flows are net negative by around $490M. The Coinbase premium has stayed negative all week, and USDC supply has shrunk by about $4.2B in 30 days, so little new dollar liquidity is coming in. Price keeps stalling below $82,000 while realized volatility stays low, about 25% annualized over 30 days. That looks like a quiet drift lower, not a capitulation. Derivatives are the reason the tilt stays small. Leveraged longs were largely wiped out on Oct 22-24, when long liquidations dominated. Over the last two days the pattern flipped and shorts were forced out, mostly between $81,000 and $83,000. Put skew has eased below its weekly average, funding is positive but moderate, and the dated-futures basis is about 5-6% annualized. Open interest measured in BTC has held flat near 200,000 BTC, so there is no obvious excess leverage left to unwind. Sentiment gives no edge either way, with Fear & Greed at a neutral 51. If price holds back above $82,000-83,000 and ETF inflows return, that would argue for stepping aside. Until then, the evidence favours a cautious bearish lean. This is market commentary, not investment advice.