Position 2026-10-07: long (+0.30, confidence 0.54)

Our view for October 7 is moderately constructive on Bitcoin: a modest long tilt held with only moderate conviction. BTC closed October 6 near $85,550. That was down about 0.25% on the day but up roughly 2.3% over the week and 6.5% over the past month. Most of the crypto-native evidence points the same way, with steady institutional demand, firm holder behaviour and derivatives positioning that leans bullish without looking overheated. The main reason to keep the position small is the macro backdrop, where financial conditions have been quietly tightening even as equities set new records. Demand looks durable. US spot Bitcoin ETFs took in about $2.08 billion net over the past 30 days, and 8 of the last 10 sessions were inflows. Monday's roughly $90 million net outflow came mostly from ARKB and FBTC, and IBIT still added about $70 million that day. On-chain, spot sits about 59% above the aggregate realized price of roughly $53,700, with MVRV near 1.6. That is a healthy cushion, but nowhere near the stretched readings seen at past cycle peaks. About three-quarters of supply is in profit, long-term holders control around 82% of it, and hashrate is up about 26% over the month. Derivatives lean bullish without signs of excess. Perpetual funding is positive on the major venues but running below its 30-day averages. Dated-futures basis sits at a moderate 5-5.6% annualized, and open interest has grown roughly in line with market cap rather than through an aggressive build-up of leverage. The options market tilts toward upside: the put/call ratio is about 0.56, front-month 25-delta calls are priced above puts, and the heaviest open interest is clustered at the $90K and $95K strikes into the October 30 expiry. Forced liquidations over the last 24 hours were roughly balanced between longs and shorts. Earlier in the week, short liquidations made up most of the total. Macro is what keeps the position small. The MOVE index of bond-market volatility is up about 44% over the month to around 105. High-yield credit spreads have widened about 16% to 3.12%, and the dollar (tracked via UUP) is up nearly 3%. August CPI rose 0.4% month-on-month. Kalshi markets give essentially no chance of a rate cut at the October 27-28 FOMC and about a one-in-five chance of a higher target range. Over the past 60 sessions Bitcoin has tended to move opposite the dollar. Its recent close co-movement with the Nasdaq means record equity highs are helping today, but they are also the most likely route for any risk-off shock. The October 14 CPI release is the next big test. Sentiment is a wash. The Fear & Greed index is steady at 71 (greed), but Google search interest is subdued and retail long/short account ratios have eased. On price, $85K has held as a floor through recent swings, and Kalshi's ladder for Friday's close is centred near $86,000. A sustained move back above $87K toward the $90K options cluster would support the long. A decisive break below $85K, or a hot CPI print alongside wider credit spreads, would argue for stepping back to neutral. This note is market commentary, not investment advice.